Qualitative Forecasting

Qualitative forecasting is a methodology that uses expert judgment, opinions, and subjective data to predict future outcomes, rather than relying solely on historical numerical data. It is commonly applied in business, economics, and project management to make predictions when quantitative data is limited, unreliable, or for long-term trends. This approach often involves techniques like Delphi method, market research, and scenario planning to gather insights from human experts.

Also known as: Judgmental Forecasting, Subjective Forecasting, Expert Forecasting, Qualitative Methods, Qualitative Analysis

Why learn Qualitative Forecasting?

Developers should learn qualitative forecasting when working on projects that require strategic planning, risk assessment, or innovation in uncertain environments, such as product development, startup ventures, or technology adoption predictions. It is particularly useful in agile and lean methodologies to anticipate market needs, prioritize features, or estimate timelines based on expert feedback rather than past data alone.

Learning Resources

• docs: Qualitative Forecasting Methods Overview
• tutorial: Forecasting Techniques: Qualitative vs. Quantitative
• course: Qualitative Forecasting in Business
• video: Introduction to Forecasting Methods